012 | The New Digital Workforce (not AI)

📓 The Next Billion Users

In 2011, I received a Department of State scholarship to study Chinese in China (called NSLI-Y).

When we 15-year-olds naively (and bravely) asked our teacher, "Why doesn't China allow internet access for all?”

We received the response: "China has a billion uneducated farmers. We limit access to social media sites like Facebook because if they received full internet access, they may see something online and not have the mental capacity to interpret truth from lies.”

Of course, the exact words have been lost a decade later. But I remember this always struck me as a… good point? Full-blooded Americans may disagree, but we also have a somewhat better education system than China, at least in 2011.

The point is: a new billion users are coming online, mostly from countries not as powerful in government structure to limit internet access. So, what's next?

Many of these new digital entrants will take on jobs that, while critical, are often the more menial or task-based work of today.

This new wave of digital labor will likely shape both developed and emerging economies.

Who Are the Next Billion?

The next billion people coming online will largely come from regions with rapidly growing populations like Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Latin America. Many of these individuals will access the internet via mobile devices, often at lower speeds and with limited resources.

As a result, they will likely engage in work that can be done remotely, with lower skill barriers to entry, such as:

• Micro-tasking: Completing simple, repetitive tasks.

• Data training: Tagging images or labeling data to help train machine learning models

• Content moderation: Reviewing content for social media platforms to ensure compliance with community standards

• Customer support: This will continue to be outsourced, combined with Ai for basic support.

Gig Work

Last week, we talked about the rise of the gig economy.

The next billion users will participate in this economy as well, performing more 'micro tasks’ which are not immediately scalable.

In developed countries, gig work often supplements our salary. But in emerging markets, gig work may become their primary income source.

To give an idea of the difference between gig work jobs for developed countries and underdeveloped countries, these simple Yes/No questions can help decide where certain jobs will be done:

• Does the job require physical labor?

• Does the job require diverse skills or training?

• Is the work creative (rather than simple and repetitive)?

• Does the job require computer usage (rather than cell phone)?

• Do you need fast internet (rather than slower internet connection)?

• Does it pay enough to attract people in wealthier countries (or is it cheaper to outsource)?

If you answered Yes to all of these — then congrats! The gig job will likely stay in the developed country.

The Opportunities Ahead

This next billion represents both an opportunity and a challenge. While many will start with menial digital tasks through gig work, some may be inspired to move up the digital value chain.

There are paths forward for these workers to:

• Transition into higher-paying freelance work like graphic design, writing, or coding

• Build their own businesses or platforms that cater to their local markets

• Leverage global digital economies to access education and training that allows for career advancement

• Collaborate with international clients or companies on remote projects

• Develop specialized skills to stay competitive in the digital economy

If you reread those last two points, what you may notice is the digital workforce will become more competitive than before. The 5th industrial revolution will force many into a potentially uncomfortable position to grow their skills to survive in the new economy.

Final Thoughts

This issue has not scratched the surface of the magnitude of this change, which we are in the middle of in 2024 (considering this is set to complete by 2027).

The next billion people will certainly bring fresh energy and innovation to not just the global economy, but also their local one.

I think about the TOMS Shoes business model and how, while studying circular economics in college, I realized that this donation-based approach actually harmed local labor.

As the next billion users come online, the future of work will forever change.

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